From 15 May, the US National Weather Service will begin issuing advisories earlier for tropical disturbances that might turn into tropical storms or hurricanes.
These disturbances, called Potential Tropical Cyclones (PTCs), are weather systems that have not yet fully formed but could bring strong winds or storm surges to land.
What’s changing?
Before:
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) could only issue warnings for PTCs when watches or warnings for land were needed – typically 36 to 48 hours before the storm could hit.
Starting 15 May:
- The NHC and Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) can now issue advisories up to 72 hours in advance – even before watches or warnings are required – if there is a chance the system could affect land with strong winds or storm surge.
Why this matters
This change gives more time to prepare. It means:
- Communities may hear about a developing threat earlier
- Emergency officials can make decisions sooner
- The public gets more notice to plan and stay safe
What you’ll see
The advisories will include:
- Public advisories with storm updates
- Forecast maps and tracks
- Wind speed probabilities
- Other graphics and information – issued every six hours
This is meant to help people better understand the risks and prepare well before a storm hits.
What to expect this hurricane season
According to a new forecast from Colorado State University (CSU), the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be more active than usual.
The main reasons: warmer-than-average ocean waters in the Atlantic and Caribbean, and weather patterns that are likely to support storm development.
What CSU predicts for 2025
- 17 named storms
- Nine hurricanes
- Four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher)
The hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Warm ocean water acts like fuel for hurricanes, and this year, much of the Atlantic is running hotter than normal.
At the same time, the climate pattern known as El Niño, which usually weakens hurricane activity, is not expected to develop.
“It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,” said Dr Michael Bell, one of the report’s authors.
Landfall probabilities
CSU researchers also provided odds for a major hurricane (Category 3+) making landfall this year:
- 51% chance somewhere along the US coastline
- 26% on the US east coast (including Florida)
- 33% along the Gulf coast
- 56% in the Caribbean
What this means for Cayman
With a 56% chance of a major hurricane affecting the Caribbean, Cayman residents are urged to:
- Start preparing early
- Review hurricane plans
- Monitor official weather updates regularly
